Government interference is killing a lot of jobs. We estimate that quarantines perpetuate at the federal level through June, with state and regional quarantines well into July and August, or perhaps longer. None of this explains what happens when we have a viral rebound either: do we have quarantines on quarantines until vaccine or herd immunity? Nobody at the federal level is willing to answer these truths.
Meanwhile, the economy is in rapid decline. And there’s been no more precipitous drop than on main street, where small and medium businesses operate on low margins and with no balance sheets. It’s here that upwards of 60M US jobs are at stake, and they’re fading quickly.